US Politics for Beginners
Okay, for my British and non-US readers. If I get anything wrong, let me know.
US POLITICS FOR BEGINNERS Here is my US politics for beginners, for those of you British people who might not understand the US election system. The system has a trifecta (3) of elements: President and the US Congress, which is made up of two chambers: the Senate and House of Representatives. In this election, the President (POTUS, being the Executive Branch) is up for election, as are some Senators and all Representatives (both being the Legislative Branch). The rest are up for election in the middle of an election cycle (2 years’ time) in what are called the Midterms. Senators are elected every 6 years, Representatives every 2 years. If the President is of one party, but the Senate and/or House of Representatives are from a different party, then the President struggles to get anything meaningful done, being more of a figurehead. This happened to Obama, where his last term saw him as a Democrat (Centrists) as POTUS, but Congress being run by the Republicans (right-wing). The US doesn’t really have a left-wing party, despite what the Republicans (the GOP – Grand Old Party) say. This meant Obama struggled to get anything done that he wanted. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONThere are 50 states and the President is elected based on what people vote in the states. This means there is a chance that more people can vote nationally for a candidate but they don’t get elected. The national vote for Hillary Clinton was 2.1%, almost 3 million votes, greater than Trump’s in 2016, but they were in the wrong places so she lost. Trump won 77,000 more votes in three states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) that won him those states by less than 1% each, bagged him the electoral college votes that pushed him over 270 he needed to win. That is why they are concentrating so heavily on those three "Rust Belt" states. The "Sun Belt" (Arizona, Texas, Florida) are also in play for the Democrats who are close in Texas, of all places. Texas going Blue (Dems) will be a sign of massive change. Each state has a certain amount of electors in what is called the Electoral College system. Over the 50 states, there are 538 electors, so to win the Presidential election, you need to get over half – 270 Electoral College “votes” (electors). Technically, the more populous the state, the more Electoral College votes you get. These get divvied up after a census, which is why an accurate census is important. Many less populated states do still get more representation than more populous states, though. California gets you 55 votes whereas Hawaii gets you 4 and Alaska 3. This is why California, Texas, Florida and New York are important. They get you a lot of votes. California and New York are safe Dem, Texas WAS safe GOP, but Florida is a swing state with 29 electors to win. If Biden wins Florida, he pretty much wins the election given that he is looking to get a bunch of other states. BUT, if Biden wins the Presidential election, this is meaningless unless he has the Congress. Presently, the House of Representatives flipped back to the Dems in the last Midterms (halfway through Trump’s term) and the Senate still has a narrow Republican majority, which is why they can rush through a new Supreme Court Justice. THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVESThese are elected every two years and are most similar to our MPs. There are 435 of them and they must be 25 years old. As such, they are much more responsive to local issues. If you have local issues, this is who you lobby. The Congress as a whole has enumerated powers (those set out explicitly in the Constitution) and implied powers. The House (of Reps) has enumerated powers that include the power to initiate revenue bills, impeach federal officials, and elect the President in the case of an electoral college tie. THE SENATEThis is called the Upper House. For Bills proposed in the Lower House (House of Representatives) to become law, they must be passed here. There are 100 Senators, 2 from each state, and they must be 30 years old. This is not representative politics as California has almost 40 million inhabitants and 2 Senators, Alaska has 730,000 and 2 Senators. One-third of them are up for election every two years. This year, a number of Republicans in perilous positions are up for re-election. When the Senate is run by one party and the House of Reps by another, passing laws is very difficult and bipartisan (cross-party) deals have to be done. Obama had to work super-hard to get Obamacare passed. The Senate has the sole power to confirm those of the President’s appointments that require consent, and to ratify treaties. There are, however, two exceptions to this rule. The Senate also tries impeachment cases for federal officials referred to it by the House.In order to pass legislation and send it to the President for his signature, both the House and the Senate must pass the same bill by majority vote. If the President vetoes a bill, they may override his veto by passing the bill again in each chamber with at least two-thirds of each body voting in favour. THIS YEAR’S PREDICTIONThere is something like a 70-75% chance of a Democratic Trifecta after the election whereby the Democrats will win the Presidency, flip the Senate and maintain the House. This will allow them to pass laws quite easily over the next two years. It is vital that momentum on election day is carried on until the Midterms as these are often forgotten by voters of the winning party and Congress ends up getting split as the minority party seeks to win back part of the Congress in a concerted effort in the Midterms. At present, the Senate sits 53 to 47 in the Republicans’ favour. 23 Republican Senator seats and 12 Democrat ones are up for grabs this election, putting the GOP on the back foot for retaining the Senate. A recent FiveThirtyEight (the best analysers and aggregator of all the polls and pollsters) analysis gave Joe Biden an 90% chance of winning the White House, and the Democratic Party a 97% chance of maintaining control of the House of Representatives and a 76% chance of winning the Senate. Hope this helps.
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