Thought for the Day: Bad Coronavirus Stats and Bad Thoughts

If you are anything like me, you are checking local and global coronavirus stats because...stats. And wanting to make sure that all of the many reactions, policies and activities of governments, institutions and organisations are warranted and in line with the data.

Here is how my mind has worked. I am going to be honest with you - it's arguably not intuitively pretty, until my rational mind takes over.

Here is the context: The whole world seems to be in some kind of a whirlwind of extreme reaction to the pandemic. Some people say this is a hysterical overreaction; others say it is not nearly enough; and everywhere in between. The question is whether these various reactions are warranted in light of the actual state of the pandemic.

Here is my intuitive response: "I hope the stats are high enough today, thus matching with government policy!"

Here is my rational after-response: "Oh my goodness, what a horrible reaction!"

Of course, wanting the policies to match the data (because the data being much lower than expected means a massive and unnecessary overreaction, arguably) means that, given some pretty hardcore policies, we "want" hardcore data.

And data represents deaths.

And deaths represent real people.

And real people's families, friends and loved ones.

Hoping for data to match policy means you are hoping for people to die. This creates quite some cognitive tension as we really should be hoping that all of our governments have made a horrendous mistake and that they are all overreacting, wasting untold money and effort, destroying the economy.

Of course, I don't want to wish for people's deaths. But I also want governments to be accurate and proportionate.  

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